Five possible economic scenarios for our COVID-19 world

Sovereign Confidential

Monthly Letter

If you’ve been a long-time subscriber, you know that I’ve been warning about serious economic problems for quite some time.

Over the years, I’ve stressed that banks might not be as safe as they pretend to be, governments might not be as solvent as they let on, mounting debt might someday create massive defaults, stocks and other asset classes with nosebleed valuations were long due for a correction, etc.

So, as soon as COVID-19 cases first emerged in China in early 2020, I thought that this virus might cause some dislocations that I’ve been writing about. And then I started thinking about implications for the global economy.

I offer my perspective humbly, acknowledging that no one-- including me-- knows for certain what’s ahead. Because there are countless permutations that could lead us down a variety of roads.

However, I’m not blindly offering these thoughts. My team and I researched previous episodes in history to give us some insight on what might pass.

So, in this month’s letter, I’ll discuss five potential economic scenarios and why real assets-- commodities, farmland, precious metals, productive businesses-- should offer opportunities, regardless of what comes next.

If you’ve been a long-time subscriber, you know that I’ve been warning about serious economic problems for quite some time. Over the years, I’ve stressed that banks might not be as safe as they pretend to be, governments might not be as solvent as they let on, mounting debt might someday create massive defaults, stocks…

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